It has become a cottage industry to debunk those who make “gloomy Malthusian predictions.” Since Malthus was wrong, Ehrlich’s predictions did not come true, and the Club of Rome over-reached its data in making its predictions, these naysayers suggest that we have nothing to worry about. Their implicit assumption seems to be that human creativity and technological advances will open new vistas and continuing opportunity for expansion and growth, whether through genetically engineered crops - or colonizing the Moon. In psychological terms, this is called “denial.”
While these predictions have been incorrect in their details, their premise does hold true. It is not possible to infinitely increase the population of the Earth without at some point depleting its enormous though finite resources. In the process, there are very real consequences of the tremendous population growth that occurred during the 20th century as Earth’s population increased from 1.6 billion to 6.1 billion people.
Foremost of these consequences is the tremendous degradation of the environment. The enormous growth of population has caused unprecedented loss of habitat and ever-increasing extinctions of plant and animal species worldwide. This loss of biodiversity leads to ecosystem instability, which ultimately threatens the plant and animal resources upon which we depend. Pollution and emission of greenhouse gases have left toxic residues in every part of the globe, and are causing catastrophic global climate change. (See Global Warming)
Rapid population growth aggravates poverty in developing countries, as a large portion of available resources are expended upon the basic survival needs of food and housing. Only twenty percent of the world’s population enjoys an adequate standard of living; the other eighty percent struggle on a daily basis with substandard living conditions that are often life-threatening.
The Green Revolution of the 1970s enabled many developing countries to grow surpluses of food for the first time. Population growth is overtaking these gains; leading, for example, to a decline worldwide in per capita availability of cereal grains over the last fifteen years. Intensive fertilizer-based agricultural methods are lowering the quality of the soil, and irrigation is depleting water tables and increasing soil salinity. Pests are increasingly resistant to insecticides: some 37% of food and fiber crops are lost to pests worldwide. Agricultural land is being lost due to spreading industrialization and growing need for living space. (see Sustainable Agriculture)
Some 400 million people currently live in regions with severe water shortages; by 2050 this is projected to increase to approximately two billion people. Water tables worldwide are falling as underground aquifers are being pumped out to provide irrigation for agriculture. Over half of all accessible fresh water on the globe is currently being utilized; we are approaching the limits of our ecosystem’s ability to support our numbers. (see Water Resources)
As the divide between haves and have-nots is intensified by population growth, there are growing threats to international security. Underemployed labor forces naturally seek to enter areas of economic opportunity; as we are seeing in the current debate over immigration policy in the U.S. there is likely to be significant resistance to opening national borders. High rates of unemployment in developing countries contribute to rising political instability, often with violent outcomes. Refugees from civil wars, natural disasters and economic dislocation add to instability and political unrest. (see Conflict Resolution)
As the world becomes more crowded, we are pressed to find meaningful responses to the issues outlined above. The recommended books in this section offer objective data concerning population growth and resource depletion, and project current trends into the future. They provide reasoned approaches to meeting the challenges of population growth in the years ahead.
David Yarian, Ph.D.
|
